WASHINGTON – The U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) has released a new policy update drawing a direct connection between violations of religious freedom and the risk of mass atrocities. The report, issued September 9, warns that when governments or nonstate actors systematically deny freedom of religion or belief, the likelihood of genocide, crimes against humanity, or other mass killings rises significantly.
USCIRF is an independent, bipartisan federal commission established in 1998 under the International Religious Freedom Act, signed by President Bill Clinton. Its mandate is to monitor, analyze, and report on religious freedom conditions worldwide. The commission’s mission is to advance the universal right to freedom of religion or belief abroad by assessing conditions in different countries, identifying “countries of particular concern” that commit or tolerate severe violations, advocating for religious prisoners of conscience, and making policy recommendations to the President, the Secretary of State, and Congress. While it operates separately from the State Department, USCIRF works in tandem with the Office of International Religious Freedom to ensure that protecting religious liberty remains a consistent priority in U.S. foreign policy.
Seal of the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom [Public Domain
The 2025 Policy Update on Preventing Mass Atrocities Targeting Religious Communities cross-references USCIRF’s annual recommendations, covering Countries of Particular Concern, Special Watch List nations, and Entities of Particular Concern, with the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum’s Early Warning Project (EWP), which identifies the 30 countries most at risk of intrastate mass killings. The findings show a striking overlap: more than half of the countries USCIRF identified as severe violators of religious freedom also appear among those at greatest risk for mass violence.
USCIRF uses three categories to classify threats. Countries of Particular Concern (CPCs) are nations where governments engage in or tolerate especially severe violations of religious freedom, such as Iran, India, and Nigeria. Entities of Particular Concern (EPCs) are nonstate actors, including terrorist groups like Boko Haram, the Islamic State in West Africa Province, and Al-Shabaab, that systematically persecute religious communities. Finally, the Special Watch List (SWL) identifies countries with serious violations that do not yet meet the threshold for CPC designation but require close monitoring, such as Indonesia and Iraq.
The cross-analysis revealed substantial overlap between the EWP’s high-risk countries and USCIRF’s designations: nine of the 16 states USCIRF recommended as CPCs also appeared in the EWP’s top 30, while several others were either on the SWL or home to EPCs. This alignment underscores USCIRF’s broader finding that severe religious freedom violations are not only human rights concerns in their own right but also strong indicators of potential mass atrocities.
Commissioner Stephen Schneck told OSV News that the comparison revealed “an incredible amount of overlap between the countries where we see the greatest dangers for religious freedom, or where we in fact see actual religious persecution taking place, and those countries that are on the watch list for a potential genocide as determined by the Holocaust Museum.” Among those countries are Burma, Burkina Faso, Syria, Nigeria, Somalia, North Korea, Pakistan, and Iraq.
The report highlights groups historically subjected to mass atrocities, including Yazidis, Christians, Shi’a Muslims, Uyghurs, Rohingya Muslims, and Armenians. Notably, it does not mention Pagans, polytheists, Witches, or traditions falling under contemporary Paganisms or folk religions.
The report’s conclusions are clear: promoting religious freedom is not only a moral and legal obligation but also a strategic tool for preventing mass atrocities. Countries with the most severe violations of freedom of religion or belief are often those at greatest risk of genocide, crimes against humanity, or other forms of mass violence. The overlap between USCIRF’s designations and the Early Warning Project confirms that violations of religious freedom consistently serve as reliable early warning signs. USCIRF calls on the U.S. government to strengthen its response by ensuring the timely release of the State Department’s annual religious freedom reports, improving interagency coordination under the Elie Wiesel Genocide and Atrocities Prevention Act of 2018, and dedicating resources to targeted prevention efforts.
The commission further emphasizes that accurate assessments, robust reporting, and context-specific programming are essential to mitigating risks, protecting vulnerable communities, and responding effectively to atrocity crimes. “With more than half of the CPC-recommended countries included in the top 30, the significant risk of egregious religious freedom violations escalating into mass atrocities is striking,” the report warns.
The update also cautions that efforts to marginalize or dehumanize religious minorities can create conditions ripe for violence. Perpetrators, including both governments and armed groups, sometimes exploit religion to justify brutality and incite hatred. By portraying certain faith communities as inferior or dangerous, they foster discrimination, erode protections, and pave the way for atrocities.
At its core, the 2025 Policy Update underscores a sobering reality: violations of religious freedom are among the clearest predictors of mass atrocities. USCIRF urges policymakers to recognize that advancing religious liberty is not only about protecting belief but also about safeguarding entire communities, ideally including all religious minorities, both those named in the report and those, such as Pagans and polytheists, who remain absent from its analysis.
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