TWH – With Earth Day just a little over a week away, articles about the state of our planet will likely be prominent in media coverage. The unprecedented floods in South Africa are a reminder that we may be facing serious new challenges.
Climate scientists have released a number of recent assessments that predict dire consequences for our ecosphere if major policy changes are not implemented globally. TWH has continued to cover the reports on climate change generated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which issued its most dire report in August last year. Subsequent reports from IPCC have outlined the impacts already being observed, addressing ways the global community might adapt and the areas most vulnerable.
The most recent report released by IPCC, titled, “Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, Summary for Policy Makers” contains the assessments of the Working Group III Report’s contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report. The report was released at the beginning of April and provides mitigation tactics for minimizing the impact of climate change.
This most recent report outlines specific actions that must be taken by the global community to avert the worst possible outcomes as the planet continues to warm. It also incorporates the evolving international landscape as it applies to sustainable development in a variety of ways; the increasing role of non-state and sub-national participants which span a large range that includes cities and businesses, Indigenous peoples, individuals, and local communities, transnational initiatives, and public-private collaborations; the various routes taken by nations for development in relation to mitigation and adaptation; and finally, examines the prospect of incorporating multi-pronged approaches from a variety of disciplines that also utilize social sciences.
Under the heading of current trends and recent developments it is noted that while greenhouse gases (GHG) and CO2 emissions have continued to rise, and were higher between 2010 to 2019, the rate of growth was lower than in the decade 2000 to 2009. While the largest rise in 2019 was in CO2 emissions, the report also notes a marked decline in overall emissions during the first half of 2020 as a direct result of actions taken due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but emissions began to rebound again in the second half of the year.
Overall, the emissions generated by urban areas were higher than in other areas, though GHG increases were observed across all sectors. Perhaps one of the most major takeaways is the variance and impact that income levels have and that, “10% of households with the highest per capita emissions contribute a disproportionately large share of global household GHG emissions.”
via the IPCC Climate Mitigation Report
According to the report the top 10% contribute between 34-45% of global consumption-based household GHG emissions while the middle 40% contribute between 40-53%, and the bottom 50% contribute 13-15%.
At least eighteen countries have managed to not only reduce their emissions but to sustain those reductions over the past 10 years by implementing both policy and economic structure changes that involved energy supply decarbonization, energy efficiency gains, and energy demand reduction.
The factor of green or low emission technologies becoming more affordable and accessible has played a role in more of them being adopted and written into policy. And while there has been a reduction or avoidance of emissions due to a consistent increase in policy and law changes since the Fifth Assessment IPCC report, financial progress towards to goals outlined in the Paris Agreement has been slow and uneven across various regions and sectors.
Unfortunately, the report finds it “likely,” (in the sense of a rate of probability being 66%-100%) that meeting the goal of keeping the warming of the planet to an increase of 1.5° Celsius will not be met within the 21st century.
The report examined four separate models as courses of action to address the warming of the planet, and the best outcome relies on a serious reduction in the use of fossil fuels and altering any existing facilities able to capture 90-95% of emissions, as well as the cancellation of any new proposed coal facilities.
All models call for continued reduction and implementation of policies adopted in 2020, with reduction moving forward to a net-zero base. The report warns that not doing so will result in the global warming of anywhere from 2.2° to 3.5°C by 2100, and the reversal of current policies on climate could lead to an increase of as much as 4°C.
Increases above 2°C would have a pronounced and deadly impact on global communities–considerable increases in extreme weather, severe flooding, unending heatwaves, and drought, all of which would impact crops and the availability of food, housing, and other supplies necessary for sustainable life.
The report also incorporates scenarios and strategies that go well beyond just the energy sector and industries. It examines building materials, promoting the use of more circular/recyclable/reusable materials, and how housing is designed and implemented in cities and urban areas that are seeing growth, as well as transportation shifts.
The report also includes commentary about how we produce and source our food including the sustainability of crops and livestock, in addition to reforestation, land management, and even agroforestry.
One basic tenet throughout all of the proposed scenarios is demand-side policies. Convincing people of the world to choose more sustainable practices, whether it is in the food they purchase, the housing they choose, or how they manage to get around is a key proponent. The report outlines the multi-faceted ways it would be interwoven:
Demand-side mitigation encompasses changes in infrastructure use, end-use technology
adoption, and socio-cultural and behavioural change. Demand-side measures and new ways of end-use service provision can reduce global GHG emissions in end use sectors by 40-70% by 2050 compared to baseline scenarios, while some regions and socioeconomic groups require additional energy and resources.
It’s easy to read the current data being published on climate change and feel not only overwhelmed, but frustrated, helpless, and even hopeless. The one thing this most recent report provides is fairly clear strategies for navigating the way forward.
In short, all is not lost. Yes, we have already suffered irreversible damage to our biosphere, that is undeniable. And yet, it is still possible to prevent further damage that may ultimately be catastrophic. It will require actions and choices from all of us.
Perhaps the most important aspect of all of this is that it is not too late. We can collectively choose to improve sustainability practices and reject policies that fail to mitigate climate change.
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