Over the past few weeks, Pew Research has released its findings from two major studies on the religious composition of various populations. In April, the center released “The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050,” which projects the religious makeup of future global populations based on current statistics, including “age, fertility, mortality, migration and religious switching for multiple religious groups around the world.” Released just last week, the second study titled, “America’s Changing Religious Landscape” is an analysis of the current religious composition of the U.S. population based on data collected in 2007 and 2014. Both reports have been generating some buzz, as the numbers and projections suggest marked changes in religious populations.
![[Credit: Sowlos / CC via Wikimedia]](https://wildhunt.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/512px-Religious_symbols-4x4.svg_-500x500.png)
[Credit: Sowlos / CC via Wikimedia]
The Christian share of the U.S. population is declining, while the number of U.S. adults who do not identify with any organized religion is growing.
According to the data, the Christian population of the U.S. declined 8 percentage points from 2007 to 2014. The biggest loss was to mainline Protestants Churches. The Christian share of the overall population went from 78.4 percent to 70.6 percent. Despite the drop, Pew notes that “the United States [still] remains home to more Christians than any other country in the world” with an estimated 174.3 million followers in 2014.
At the same time, the “unaffiliated” population significantly increased, rising six percentage points from 16.8 percent to 22.8 percent. It is important to note that Pew defines “unaffiliated” as Agnostics, Atheists and “people who do not identify with any particular religion.” That latter designation includes those persons who are spiritual but not religious; and religious but not labeled. Pew clarifies this definition in Appendix C of its world projections study, saying:
Surveys have found that belief in God or a higher power is shared by 7 percent of unaffiliated Chinese adults, 30 percent of unaffiliated French adults and 68 percent of unaffiliated U.S. adults.
This is an important point when reviewing the data. In a recent Wall Street Journal article, titled “The Future of Religion is Bleak,” Tufts professor Daniel C. Dennett suggested that the rise of the “nones” or “unaffiliated,” is evidence of the decline of religion. The author’s reasoning is based on the definition of “unaffiliated” as solely Atheists, ignoring the growing population of “spiritual but not affiliated.” While Pew statistics do indicate a decline in traditional organized religion, they do not necessarily indicate a decline in personal religious belief or ritual practice. This is something easily understood and seen within the collective Pagan, Heathen and Polytheists contexts. People can be religious and unaffiliated.
So where do the alternative religions fit into the Pew study on American trends from 2007-2014? Pew uses a series of eight categories, including Christian, Jewish, Muslim, Buddhist, Hindu, Unaffiliated, Other World Religions and Other Faiths.
“World religions,” which include “Sikhs, Baha’is, Taoists, Jains and a variety of other world religions,” have, as a groups, increased slightly to 0.3% of the current American population. The “other faiths” grouping includes “Unitarians, those who identify with Native American religions, Pagans, Wiccans, New Agers, deists, Scientologists, pantheists, polytheists, Satanists and Druids, just to name a few.” This category has remained stable at 0.4% of the population.
While the “other faith” basket is quite diverse, there are a few interesting statistics to pull out of the study. For example, in 2007, the gender distribution for the “New Age” sub-category, under which they placed Wicca, was evenly distributed. Since that point, there appears to have been a slight surge in female adherents. The 2014 data shows 61 percent of the population is now female. In addition, the Southern and Western U.S. have the largest populations of “other faiths.” Each area is home to 31 percent of the total U.S. population of “other faiths.”
The study also demonstrates that the “other faiths” and “unaffiliated” categories both have the largest “Millennial” populations. This may account for the large number of “New Age” respondents claiming “some college,” as well as the largest income bracket being “under $30,000.” Pew itself concludes that the religions and religious groupings that experienced the most growth during this period have larger populations of young people.
![[Photo Credit: Ktrinko / Via Wikimedia]](https://wildhunt.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/640px-Eckert4-500x250.jpg)
[Photo Credit: Ktrinko / Via Wikimedia]
At the same time, the Muslim population is expected to skyrocket. By 2050, Pew estimates that Muslim population will be equal to the Christian population, and by 2070, the center projects that there will be more Muslims than Christians worldwide. As noted earlier, Pew bases these projections on current fertility rates, migration patterns, life expectancy and other statistics that indicate population shifts.
As for minority religions, the changes are marginal at best. As with the American study, Pew uses eight groupings, including Christian, Jewish, Muslim, Buddhist, Hindu, Unaffiliated, Folk Religions and Other Religions. Folk religions are defined as “African traditional religions, Chinese folk religions, Native American religions and Australian aboriginal religions;” and “other religions” are defined as “the Baha’i faith, Jainism, Shintoism, Sikhism, Taoism, Tenrikyo, Wicca, Zoroastrianism and many other religions.”
While the American study demonstrates a recent increase in the unaffiliated, the world projections suggest a future overall drop. Of course, these shifts are largely location dependent. Pew projects that, by 2050, three countries will have an “unaffiliated” majority, including France, New Zealand and the Netherlands. As noted earlier, “unaffiliated” is defined as Atheists, Agnostics and “people who do not identify with any particular religion.” While these countries may no longer have a formal Christian majority, it does not mean that they are “losing their religion.” France, for example, is a fiercely secular country. The growth of the “unaffiliated” may simply indicate a surge in religious individualism, as fostered by the specific culture, as much as a surge in Atheism.
Where does the global study project “other religions” going by 2050? While the study suggests a slight decline from 0.8% to 0.7% of the total world population, the number of actual people will rise from 58 million to 61 million. Unfortunately, this grouping of religions is far too broad to pick out any data specifically on Pagan, Heathen and Polytheist trends. As recorded by Pew, “The growth trajectories of specific religions in this category could vary greatly.” However, Pew did note that Wiccans and Pagans, along with Unitarians, featured largely in a previous landscape survey concerning the switching of religions.
For our purposes, Pew’s results are too broad to provide any concrete data on trends in Pagan, Heathen and Polytheist practices. However, the studies provide a sense that these minority religions could gain momentum within the United States and other cultures where “unaffiliated” populations are expanding. Even if the “other faiths” or “other religions” are not expanding themselves, acceptance may become easier in those areas; unlike regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, where Pentecostal Christianity is on the rise.
Returning to the Wall Street Journal article, Professor Dennett suggests that “religion recedes whenever human security and well-being rises,” and when people have increased exposure to information. This may be true, as many people do tend to rely on spiritual belief and religious practice when faced with crisis or the unknown. However, as noted earlier, religion doesn’t appear to be “receding.”
Dennett’s analysis is based on the more traditional monotheistic models of organized religion and does not take into account the individual-based models that we often find in Paganism, Heathenry and Polytheist movements and beyond. Pew’s research does appear to show a decline in adherence to the older models of religious practice within the U.S., as exemplified by decline in specific Christian affiliations. However, there is also an increase in the more individual-based models, as shown by the increase in “other faiths” and “unaffiliated” categories.
Regardless, even this decline is limited to by regions and cultures. While Dennett may be absolutely correct in noting a religious shift based on security and access to information (or education,) the conclusion that religion’s future is bleak is not exactly accurate. The future of the older models of religious practice may be uncertain; but not religion as a whole.
One last point to note is that Pew indicates that the reporting on religion and projections is complex and often flawed. Religious surveys can be significantly influenced by politics, social or family pressures, cultural expectations and other external factors. Ultimately, the Pew studies provide broad suggestions of shifts and trends.But they do not indicate true religious belief, something personal that can be deeply hidden and something that is constantly changing.
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One or two typos. Dr. Bennett or Dr. Dennett? 31 percent of people in the Southwestern U.S. identify with “other faiths”? That figure sounds high.
It didn’t say “Southwestern,” but “Southern and Western,” the latter including Northern California. But 31% still seems high.
Thanks. It is Dr Dennett. The percentage mentioned is correct. However the reading is not a percent of the region’s total population. The 31 percent is based on the total U.S. population of “other religions.” 31 percent live in the South and 31 percent live in the West. The next highest is the Northeast followed by the Mid West.
I will adjust the sentence to ensure clarity on that.
I am amused by Bennett’s panicked response. Christian affiliation slumps from just under 80% to just above 70%, and the sky is falling. Seventy percent. What kind of super-majority does this kind of “religious” person need to feel secure?
Total majority. Then they start worrying about the struggle for correct orthodoxy.
It’s unlikely that Dennett is panicked. Celebratory, maybe. Trying hard to conceal his glee. Dennett is a well know “New Atheist” scholar.
Ah, I didn’t know that. But the sky still isn’t falling even if one wants it to.
Important to note, too, how much fertility rates impact growth or shrinkage of religious populations. Millennials marry late and have children late, so statistics related to their percentage of the population will change more gradually. Conservative Christian denominations have on average one more child per household than mainstream Protestant denominations, so their pool of believers grows faster. Globally, the Muslim population grows through birthrates as much as that tenuous thing, “belief.” With the American population especially, there is no guarantee that adults will stay with the religion in which they were raised.
It would be interesting to see if anyone has studied the likelihood people have of keeping up with the faith of their parents. I would think that an important factor would be the place of this particular faith in national politics and it’s demographic importance.
The first thing to know about such a survey is who wants it. The major churches want “snapshot” research like Pew’s, who get down to counting (or clumping) us because an incomplete survey for the big shots would have no reputable standing, not because we asked for it. Who would be interested in retention stats? Remember, if there are N religions in the world then the snapshot counts N data, but a complete who-converted-to-what survey would count N-squared-minus-N data, which gets huge as N grows. But Pew might have counted it anyway. Maybe if they were asked…BTW I peeked first into the “religious conversion” article in Wiki, and their stuff about us talked about “cults” and was old.
Regarding your final statement. The term “cult” has become taboo. It simply means a group of people who have a specific religious devotion to a particular figure. So, using the word “cult” as a negative in regards to the research is wrong.
That is certainly the case in professional theological and religious circles, but when a popular book from the 1980s uses it in the title one must take context into account.
No, the word has two meanings. The religious studies meaning, as you cite, and the sociological/psychological one referring to what other cult experts call “high-demand groups”.
Huh, fair point. Not one I had thought about until you just brought it up. Thanks.
Back in the ’80s and ’90s, Paganism was growing at an explosive rate. It probably increased its numbers tenfold from 1995-2000. The Pew survey would indicate that that growth has slowed or stopped. My own anecdotal observations would appear to echo this. In my Pagan Community, I mostly see the same old faces, and numbers don’t appear to be growing. But then, I live in Central Florida, so my sample may be biased.
Does anybody else have any data? Are Pagan numbers still growing?
I don’t know about overall, but I’ve noticed that Unitarian Universalism has seen an increase in Pagans
I see a few new faces yearly. I teach Paganism and Wicca. I live in a high turn over town. Military. But the issue with expanding is that Wicca is a religion of converts and Wiccans are so into giving their children the freedom to choose that many choose to be atheist. I am teaching my children the old ways but I can’t guarantee a family tradition. The larger festivals usually have the same faces. It’s important to reach out into the community and place ads so that people have the opportunity to know what it is to live pagan.
I don’t have data, but I do have forty-plus years of observation and involvement in a single Pagan community which happens to be one of the older, larger, and more cooperative Pagan communities in the United States (greater San Francisco Bay Area). This community began in the mid-Sixties with a few dozen people and grew exponentially through the mid-Eighties. That period of rapid growth coincides with the growth rate reported from other parts of the country that started around the same time or earlier.
In the late Eighties, the rate of expansion slowed markedly but did not stop. Since then several changes have happened in the wider culture that make it harder to track rates of affiliation and disaffiliation (though it was never easy, given the lack of Pagan institutions). These changes include more widespread availability of entry level information about Paganism and trends toward more online interaction, less interaction face to face.
Individuals with Pagan inclinations who don’t meet regularly with any fixed group have probably always been the majority, but they are even more so now that groups and expert teachers are no longer the gatekeepers of basic information about Pagan values and practices. This makes it very hard to distinguish who is passing through from who is sticking around. Furthermore, pop Paganism seems to be joining pop Buddhism as a set of memes that many people find appealing but do not make major changes in their lives to pursue, and that blurs the lines between Pagans and people who have some Pagan sympathies.
Statistics like these can be deceiving.
I’m Dutch, one of the three countries that is expected to have an unaffiliated majority at some point. It is true that many people do not identify as religious here. But at the same time, a majority does not exclude the possibility of the supernatural. Meditation, retreats, alternative celebrations: these expressions of spirituality will not find their way into the statistics because people would not identify as anything when asked (especially when it is multiple choice). But yet it does not mean they are areligious.
The summary (and the referenced studies) do in fact note that what percentage of unaffiliated are atheist/agnostic varies by country, and they give examples for China, France and the US (the US study also includes explicit questions about belief in God). Other Pew studies in the US have included questions about other religious/spiritual beliefs and practices, as well. Doesn’t help for the Netherlands, but it’s possible someone has done such surveys there.
I think like 25% of Millennials listen to heavy metal, and the topics covered (the ‘Pagan Fest’ tour, Viking metal, folk metal, antinomian like Satanism, detailed Kabbalistic symbolism in 50% of black metal bands) would probably indicate that at least 1 in 10 metal fans have some sort of pagan interest.
I think like 25% of Millennials listen to heavy metal, and the topics covered (the ‘Pagan Fest’ tour, Viking metal, folk metal, detailed Kabbalistic symbolism in 50% of black metal bands) would probably indicate that at least 2.5% of Millennials have some sort of pagan interest.