Pagan scholar Helen Berger, co-author of “Voices from the Pagan Census: A National Survey of Witches and Neo-Pagans in the United States”, has announced that she and fellow researchers James R. Lewis and Henrik Bogdan are revisiting the Pagan Census project. The Pagan Census was first initiated nearly twenty years ago, and compiled data from thousands of modern Pagans to give a fascinating snapshot of our communities during Paganism’s meteoric rise in the 1990s. Now, in an age of blogs and instant communications, an update is underway to compare and contrast just how much we’ve changed.

“A number of scholars have noted that it would be helpful to have a follow-up of that survey to see if and how the community has changed or remained the same. The survey that follows uses many, although not all of the same questions that were in the original survey to provide that comparison. There are also new questions, for instance about the Internet, something that was of little interest 20 years ago but is now, and some from other studies, that again permit a comparison. This has resulted in the survey being somewhat long–we appreciate your taking the time to complete it.”

I urge all my readers who identify in any way with the modern Pagan/Heathen movement to participate in this census and spread the word to everyone you know. The more respondents the census has, the more accurate the data. You can find it, here. You can be sure that I will be paying attention to this renewed project as it goes forward, and will keep you appraised of any updates or results.

Back in 2001 the British census was rocked by a massive Internet campaign/practical joke, where, for a variety of reasons, 400,000 people listed “Jedi” as their religious affiliation. The Pagan community, though ranking as the seventh-largest faith in Britain with a combined number of nearly 40,000, paled in comparison (Pagan groups, who feel they could actually number in the hundreds of thousands, are organizing to ensure a more accurate count in 2011). While I don’t doubt that there are sincere adherents to some sort of constructed Jedi-faith, it seems more likely that it became a haven for people who don’t like the idea of telling the government their religious affiliation, or even having to decide on a religious affiliation. I bring all this up because the Washington Post is doing a spotlight on faith within the popular social networking site Facebook, and it looks like the return of the Jedi.

“Since then, Facebook’s beliefs box has generated a staggering number of entries. So exactly how many users put down “beer” as their religion? How many “Catholic”? What correlations exist between religion and number of friends? Company spokeswoman Meredith Chin declined to answer such questions, citing user privacy. But Chin agreed to compile a list of the most popular religious identities and offered some tantalizing hints at what a full readout might show. Not surprisingly, the most popular faith professed is “Christian” and the various denominations associated with it. The category is so dominant that for this list, Facebook’s statisticians insisted on combining such other designations as “Protestant,” “Catholic” and “Mormon” under the “Christian” label. As a result, the second most popular entry on the list is “Islam,” followed by “Atheist.” “Jedi,” interestingly enough, makes an appearance at No. 10.”

There are so many questions about Facebook’s religion data that aren’t asked or answered in William Wan’s breezy little article. For instance, Facebook statisticians “insisted” on combining all the Christian variations, but did they do the same for other religious groupings? Were all the various Pagan faiths combined as well? If not, why not? Is “spiritual” a catch-all category, or is it just people who listed themselves solely as “spiritual”, and why include a Washington DC top-ten but not one for the USA as a whole?  Why only ten? If it isn’t a violation of user privacy to give us a top-ten list, why not a top twenty or fifty? Further, why did Wan classify “Seguidor del Wiccanismo” (follower of Wicca in Spanish, of which there are 2000 on Facebook) as “offbeat”, did he not bother to run it through a translator? Does the fact that this listing was given as an example of “offbeat” answers to the religion question (along with “Heavy Metal” and “Amish”) in fact prove that Facebook statisticians didn’t bother to gather the modern Pagans into an easy-to-count single grouping?

Instead of doing a real investigation of religion on Facebook, Wan focuses instead on how “hard” it is to fill in that text box, when all you want to do is hook up with some friends.

“It’s Facebook. The whole point is to keep it light and playful, you know?” said Heim, 27, a college student from Dumfries. “But a question like that kind of makes you think.”

Indeed, it does make you think, I just wish the Washington Post were similarly inspired. It’s “interesting” that Jedi came in tenth, but not interesting enough to probe a bit deeper into why it’s the tenth-most-popular faith category on Facebook. If only the The Force could spur some more in-depth journalism on these questions.

ADDENDUM: Get Religion and I seem to be on the same wavelength today.

Ruth Gledhill of The Times examines new survey data on religious attendance in Britain, and the results aren’t looking too good for Christianity.

“Church attendance in Britain is declining so fast that the number of regular churchgoers will be fewer than those attending mosques within a generation, research published today suggests … Churchgoing [Christians] across all denominations in England will fall from about 3 million today to about 700,000 in 2050. In Wales it will tumble from 200,000 to 42,000 and in Scotland, from 550,000 to 140,000. The figures take into account the recent boost to Catholicism from the number of Polish immigrants to Britain, particularly in Scotland.”

The new data comes from UK-based Christian Research, who regularly publish updates on church attendance and adherence in their “Religious Trends” studies. While the Times article gives special focus to Muslim fortunes in this brave new (projected) Christian-minority world (at least in terms of attendance), the rising tide of declining Christian attendance raises all religious minority boats.

“The forecast to 2050 shows churchgoing in Britain declining to 899,000 while the active Hindu population, now at nearly 400,000, will have more than doubled to 855,000.”

So if Muslims and Hindus are going to benefit, what about the Pagans? According to the last British census, there were around 40,000 Pagans in the UK. But many Pagans believe there are a lot more, from conservative estimates of nearly 300,000, to (un-sourced) articles claiming there are a million Pagans. If census growth rates hold steady in the next fifty years (and if these latest projections hold true for all non-Christian faiths), religion in Britain won’t be taken over by Muslims, instead we can look forward to a Britain locked in a precarious balance between the remaining Christians, Muslims, Hindus, and Pagans.

Aiding the growth of minority faiths will be the economic decline of Christianity in Britain. As attendance drops, the large institutional structures maintained by the Church of England and the Catholics will become unsustainable. Something that could happen in less than thirty years.

“The fall – from the four million people who attend church at least once a month today – means that the Church of England, Catholicism and other denominations will become financially unviable. A lack of funds from the collection plate to support the Christian infrastructure, including church upkeep and ministers’ pay and pensions, will force church closures as ageing congregations die.”

Of course, predictions of future events could always be altered by factors yet unforeseen. However, it does give us a glimpse of how a post-Christian world might look, and what our place might be in such a world. Will we be ready for a time when modern Pagans hold political office (and pandered to by politicians looking to get into office), are looked to for social guidance, and considered completely mainstream? We in America may get a preview of such a world sooner than we think in the UK.

Is modern Paganism becoming more mainstream, yet shrinking in size? That seems to be the gist of two recent articles that talked to practitioners and academics about the state of modern Paganism today. Reuters reporter Sarah Marsh interviews famed Alexandrian priestess Maxine Sanders, who explains that Witches and Pagans are more in demand than ever before.

“‘Witches are getting more and more in demand. People want a pagan wedding,’ said Maxine Sanders, high priestess of the sacred mysteries and a promoter of the modern nature-based witchcraft movement of Wicca … People are more tolerant on the whole nowadays, she added, and more interested in witchcraft.”

Elsewhere in the article, pop-culture boosts to Wicca and other modern Pagan religions through shows like “Buffy” and “Charmed” are mentioned, but a metaphysical store owner says these newcomers aren’t necessarily in it for the religion.

“More and more people are practicing magic but they are not necessarily interested in the spiritual side of witchcraft, said John Cole, high priest of a Manchester coven and owner of an occult shop selling everything from cauldrons to Viking rune charms.”

Some of these themes are taken up in a Samhain-themed article for The Record in Canada. Mirko Petricevic interviews academic Douglas Cowan, author of “Cyberhenge: Modern Pagans on the Internet”, who also credits pop-culture for a sudden burst of growth, yet now thinks modern Paganism is entering a “shrinking” phase as that initial surge of interest wears off.

“Cowan says he hasn’t had to go far to track the popularity of Paganism. But he has also observed that participation seems to be declining. Not long ago, he says, books about Wicca and witchcraft occupied huge amounts of shelf space at book stores. “Over the years I watched that shrink” … Cowan suspects the next census or two will show a dramatic drop in the number of Pagans. He says he believes Paganism will grow, but that it will build slowly from the same core group of believers who were practising before interest in Paganism was driven by pop-culture.”

While I agree that we may be tapering off of the explosive growth modern Paganism saw in the 1990s, there seems to be no clear picture on if we are shrinking (call it the hypothetical “pop-culture corrective”). Book-buying as proof of growth rates is a pretty shaky indicator, especially if the market was over-saturated for many years (as I believe it was). There will always be transient dabblers and seekers who don’t stay long, but the demographics of possible new Pagans keep improving, perhaps mitigating any dramatic “shrink” in population. No doubt harder data will emerge when both Britain and Australia hold their next censuses in 2011. Until then, while I agree we are becoming ever more “mainstream”, I’m not sure we are experiencing any dramatic downturn.

One of the pervasive beliefs about modern Paganism is that we are growing at an explosive rate. Several studies (often by conservative Christian polling groups) exclaim excitedly of how teens are picking up “occult” and Pagan practices in huge numbers, or how the vast majority of Americans believe in “the paranormal” to one extent or another. Recently, an Australian study of religion claimed that modern Pagan faiths were the fastest growing in that country.

“Amongst those religions on the rise are Buddhism (up 79% since 1996), Islam (up 40%), Hinduism (up 42%), Pentecostalism (up 11%), ‘nature religions’ including Paganism and Wicca/witchcraft, (up 130%), and Scientology (up 37%).”

But is our collective explosive growth now leveling off? While we still have no firm data on America’s Pagan population, new data from Australia’s 2006 census has just been released that sheds some new light on Pagan growth rates. Sociologist (and Pagan) Douglas Ezzy reveals that Pagan growth rates seem to be slowing down*.

“We just heard the figures for the Australian 2006 Census. They are: Paganism 16,000 (11,000 in 2001), Witchcraft/Wicca 8,000 (9,000 in 2001), Other Nature Religion: 2,000 (3,000 in 2001). That makes a change from a total of 23,000 (0.12%) in 2001 to 26,000 (0.13%) in 2006 … so, basically, the number of Pagans recorded on the Australian Census in 2006 is around 0.13 to 0.14% of the population and has grown in size by about 13% since the 2001 Census. Not bad, but nothing like the growth the movement had earlier.”

While Paganism is still on the rise, it is no longer the news-making “boom” that grabbed so much attention in the 1990s, and spurred a large-scale invasion of Pagan-friendly products into the mainstream. Since Australia’s census takes place every five years it can perhaps give an quicker (and more accurate?) snapshot of our collective growth rates. But any claims of a overall slowing of Pagan growth will most likely have to wait until the United Kingdom’s next census in 2011 (like Australia, the UK also reported “explosive” growth in Pagan numbers in its 2001 census). American statistics will have to, as always, rely on the more inexact nature of polls and surveys to get a feeling for our growth rates.

* Could this be yet another sign that our era’s occult renaissance is about to end, just as Louis T. Culling predicted?